Will the Government Shut Down Again in Feb

The longest government shutdown in Usa history is almost over, and the federal government volition be fully operational over again — at least for the next three weeks.

The relief is temporary. The deal cut past President Trump and congressional leaders to end the shutdown funds several regime agencies only through February 15, with the understanding that Democrats and Republicans will keep searching for a compromise that would give Trump the win he wants on border security while also providing protections for vulnerable migrants, every bit Democrats demand.

The next funding cliff is non that far off, and the lesson of the by two years has been that it is extremely difficult, maybe impossible, for Democrats and the president to make a deal on immigration.

And so where volition we notice ourselves the day after Valentine'southward Day? Celebrating a wall-for-DREAMers deal and the calming of the immigration debate? Or on the verge of however another partial regime shutdown so presently later the terminal i ended?

Let's run through the possibilities, starting with the almost optimistic and therefore probably least likely scenario.

Scenario 1: a big, beautiful immigration deal is reached and this fight is over

The White Business firm and congressional leaders could detect some kind of satisfactory compromise that gives Trump the money he wants for border security while as well giving Democrats enough in return to protect vulnerable migrants. In this scenario, an clearing bargain is reached, a new spending bill passes before February 15, and everybody moves on to fight about other issues.

There are a lot of good reasons to believe that won't happen.

Trump and Democrats (the two important parties here) accept been searching for an immigration trade for more than a yr now. The president wants his wall — or, at least, enough border security funding that he can merits to have gotten the wall — to deliver on his signature campaign promise. Democrats desire protections for hundreds of thousands of migrants whose legal condition Trump has put at risk.

So the bones contours of any potential bargain have ever been clear: funding for edge security in exchange for giving legal relief to people protected nether the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program and other migrants who receive special protected condition at present threatened by Trump. The White Firm had been floating a scaled-downwards version of that plan to end the current shutdown — 3 years of legal protections for wall funding — but Democrats wouldn't bite. They volition withal probably want more than than temporary relief for migrants if they are going to give the president money for border fencing.

The real problems have always been legal immigration — the hardliners in the White House desire legal immigration cuts; Democrats are generally opposed — and Trump's unreliability. Senate Autonomous leader Chuck Schumer thought he had a Wall-for-DACA deal with Trump last year, only for the president to renege in one case immigration hawks on his staff got a give-and-take in.

All of this remains truthful as the 2 sides sit down and effort to piece of work toward a brand new immigration deal before February 15. Peradventure the trauma of the long shutdown volition be enough to milk shake everybody loose and help them discover mutual ground. But don't bet on information technology.

In that case, nosotros would have no immigration deal by February fifteen and another shutdown looming. A few things could happen at that point.

Scenario two: no deal and the government shuts down again

If Trump doesn't get the immigration deal he wants, he could do the same thing he did in December and threatened to veto whatever new regime spending bill until he does go what he wants. Unless Republican leaders are willing to defy the president and pass a spending bill against his wishes — something they were non willing to practise to avert the most contempo shutdown — the regime would close downwards again without a new funding plan passing by February 15.

That would put the government correct back where it was a few days ago: hundreds of thousands of workers furloughed, services suspended, contractors going without pay, and no resolution in sight in the standoff between Trump and Democratic leaders. How long it would last is everyone'due south guess — the president has talked before near a shutdown that lasts for months, mayhap even years.

Trump might be reluctant to shut the government over again, though, especially so shortly after opening information technology back up. He took the bulk of the blame for the virtually recent shutdown, and he probably would again, given his long public record of proverb that he would be proud to shut downwards the regime to go what he wants.

Scenario three: no deal, but the government stays open up and Trump declares a border emergency to get his wall

In that case, Trump has some other bill of fare to play: He could declare a national emergency in order to circumvent Congress and try to commandeer the federal funding he needs to get his wall.

The president alluded to this possibility when announcing the deal Fri to reopen the regime for now: If he and Congress can't cut a deal, "I volition employ the powers afforded to me under the laws and the Constitution of the Usa to address this emergency."

In this scenario, the government wouldn't shut down once more. Congress could but pass a new spending beak and Trump could sign information technology, knowing he has this trump card, a grade his allies accept suggested before. But the immigration fight would escalate in the courts.

Trump has been reluctant to really take the emergency declaration route, though he keeps threatening information technology, seemingly considering plenty people have told him it's legally perilous. As Voice's Emily Stewart previously reported:

But others — people with the president's ear — are more bullish on Trump'due south authority to declare such an emergency and win in the courts. Trump might decide that rather than hazard another shutdown and the risky blame game that comes with it, he'll simply go on the authorities and move his wall fight to a new arena.

Scenario four: no bargain, but the authorities stays open and Trump doesn't declare an emergency

And then once more, Trump might get common cold feet near another shutdown and nigh making the emergency declaration. There is a lot of risk in both courses. Instead, he could stamp and pout but ultimately determine to sign another government spending beak and just keep railing against Democrats for beingness inadequately concerned well-nigh the (greatly exaggerated) crisis at the border.

That might sound like a long shot, given how invested Trump is in the edge fight. Merely that'due south more or less what just happened: Trump shut down the government to get his wall, Democrats refused to budge, the public blamed Trump and even his base of operations started to turn against him, then Trump caved and reopened the government without getting whatever meaningful concessions from Democrats.

This shutdown waltz can experience like a tape skipping, the same beats playing over and over. Come back in February when the needle drops again, and we'll see what happens adjacent.

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Source: https://bonnyartnails.com/politics/is-the-government-going-to-shut-down-again-in-february-here-are-4-scenarios.html

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